Posted by
Michael on Sunday, February 24, 2008 3:42:40 AM
It may be too soon to say this, and seeing as I supported Kerry in 2004 and the Republicans in the 2006 midterm elections, my record for predicting elections is not totally sound, but I really don't see John McCain beating Barack Obama in November.
Democrats are at their best politically when they have fallen in love with their candidate. The natural distrust of all those who seek power that many libertarians have is not present amongst the left, who have a strong tendency towards hero worship. They have been reaching for candidates that have the aura and charm (though not necessarily the politics) of John F. Kennedy, and that was part of the appeal of Bill Clinton. Barack Obama's appeal is the same appeal that George Clooney has. He is more celebrity than a politician, and that will bring out the housewives and young people.
John McCain, on the other hand, is also a charmer, but he is a fossil. He doesn't look as good as Obama for very natural and obvious reasons, and I can imagine a repeat of the 1960 television debate with Obama playing the role of the handsome and idealistic Kennedy while McCain plays the role of the sweaty, career politician Nixon. The long political history of John McCain will undoubtedly spill out numerous skeletons, something Obama doesn't really have to worry about with having written about intimate details of his life already and only serving a little over three years in the Senate.
If the situation in Iraq continues to improve in Iraq, that could be used to beat back Obama. It's almost granted that some extremist Muslim somewhere in the world will do something rash, and Obama's warm-fuzziness may turn off some voters when it's met the ugliness of reality. Many voters who are only interested because they think Obama is cool may not even actually cast a ballot in November, deciding to smoke a bong instead. These are all possibilities, but I really see a combination of dissatisfaction with the sitting Republican president and McCain's baggage (as well as the fact that voters historically clean house after two terms with one party) leading to a Democratic victory in November.